Sales increased by 10.5%YoY
The Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC) has recently disclosed the sales figures for the period of 9MCY10. The sales increased by 10.5%YoY to 14.8 Million tons during the period comparing to 13.4 Million tons during the same period last year where during 9MFY10 the overall sales volume stood at 1.73 Million tons showing 33%MoM increase comparing to the previous month of the same year.
FO volumetric sales led the up-surge
The decent size up-surge was mainly in contribution to Furnace Oil (FO) volumes during the period which depicted an increase of 12.4%YoY to place at 6.6 Million tons comparing to 5.87 Million tons during the same period last year mainly on the back of higher dependence on the thermal power generation.
Mogas witnessed highest increase during the period
The Mogas sales witnessed 32.4%YoY growth to 1.42 Million tons comparing to 1.07 Million tons during the same period last year chiefly in response to the gas shortage which allowed the shutdown of CNG Stations and pulled the Mogas demand on high. Furthermore, the Jet Fuel upped by 31.5%YoY to 1.09 Million tons in contrast to 0.83 Million tons during the same period last year while HSD sales remained slower to stand at 5.53 Million tons comparing to 5.44 Million tons during the corresponding period last year mainly in contribution to the slowdown in economy.
PSO remained the market leader
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) remained the market leader during the period by maintaining its position at 69.5% mainly in response to the continuous rising trend in FO sales which stood at 88.7% during the period while Mogas and High Speed Diesel (HSD) sales of the company witnessed a downward momentum to 48.3% and 61.3% in that order. On the other hand, the market share of Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) also rose to 5.5% in response to the enhancement in the sale of HSD to 6.7% while shell dropped its market share to 12% during the period.
Looking Forward
I believe that the FO sales will continue rising as around 1,800MW thermal units are expected to commercialize by FY11 while the circular debt issue will remain the hurdle for industry. I currently maintain ‘buy’ stance for PSO, APL and SHELL by considering their FY10E trading at 6.47x, 6.67x and 7.50x respectively where my target price of PSO, APL and SHELL for FY10 is PKR 390, PKR 415 and PKR 390 per share respectively.
Showing posts with label Oil and Gas Marketing Industry of Pakistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil and Gas Marketing Industry of Pakistan. Show all posts
Monday, April 12, 2010
Friday, April 2, 2010
Shell FY09 Review
Earnings tremendously boosted during FY09
Shell Pakistan (SHELL) has recently disclosed its result for the period of FY09. The company posted the NPAT of PKR 3.91 Billion during the period comparing to the NLAT of PKR 1.73 Billion during the same period last year where the EPS during the period stood at PKR 37.42 comparing to LPS of PKR 25.20 during the corresponding period last year mainly at the back of higher exchange and inventory losses during last year.
Higher margins squeezed the Cost of Sales
The company made the sale of PKR 156 Billion during the period comparing to PKR 163.15 Billion during the same period last year which translated 4%YoY decrease during the period. Conversely, the cost of sales nose-dived by 9%YoY to PKR 143.10 Billion during the period due to the drastic surge in crude oil as well refined product prices specially the HSD which permitted the company to incur higher inventory gains. Moreover, the gross profit enlarged by 100%YoY to PKR 12.9 Billion resulting higher margins during the period.
Other income surged by 28%YoY
The further support to the outshine performance was given by other income which surged by 28%YoY to PKR 917 Million against PKR 719 Million during the same period last year chiefly due to distribution of higher profits from Pak Arab Pipeline company Limited (PAPCO) to its associated companies.
TFC issuance led lower financial charges
The distribution and administrative expenses of the company upped during the period by 21%YoY to PKR 7.22 Billion comparing to PKR 5.98 Billion during the same period last year while the financial charges of the company turned down by 53%YoY to PKR 1.29 Billion from PKR 2.71 Billion during the same period last year mainly at the back decrease in interest rates. Moreover, the issuance of TFC of worth PKR 85 Billion by the GoP for resolving the circular debt also supported the decrease in financial charges during the period.
Looking Forward
I currently maintain ‘buy’ stance for the SHELL scrip by considering its current trading at FY10E of 7.50x where my target price for FY10 is PKR 390 per share.
Shell Pakistan (SHELL) has recently disclosed its result for the period of FY09. The company posted the NPAT of PKR 3.91 Billion during the period comparing to the NLAT of PKR 1.73 Billion during the same period last year where the EPS during the period stood at PKR 37.42 comparing to LPS of PKR 25.20 during the corresponding period last year mainly at the back of higher exchange and inventory losses during last year.
Higher margins squeezed the Cost of Sales
The company made the sale of PKR 156 Billion during the period comparing to PKR 163.15 Billion during the same period last year which translated 4%YoY decrease during the period. Conversely, the cost of sales nose-dived by 9%YoY to PKR 143.10 Billion during the period due to the drastic surge in crude oil as well refined product prices specially the HSD which permitted the company to incur higher inventory gains. Moreover, the gross profit enlarged by 100%YoY to PKR 12.9 Billion resulting higher margins during the period.
Other income surged by 28%YoY
The further support to the outshine performance was given by other income which surged by 28%YoY to PKR 917 Million against PKR 719 Million during the same period last year chiefly due to distribution of higher profits from Pak Arab Pipeline company Limited (PAPCO) to its associated companies.
TFC issuance led lower financial charges
The distribution and administrative expenses of the company upped during the period by 21%YoY to PKR 7.22 Billion comparing to PKR 5.98 Billion during the same period last year while the financial charges of the company turned down by 53%YoY to PKR 1.29 Billion from PKR 2.71 Billion during the same period last year mainly at the back decrease in interest rates. Moreover, the issuance of TFC of worth PKR 85 Billion by the GoP for resolving the circular debt also supported the decrease in financial charges during the period.
Looking Forward
I currently maintain ‘buy’ stance for the SHELL scrip by considering its current trading at FY10E of 7.50x where my target price for FY10 is PKR 390 per share.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Shell Pakistan Ltd. 1HCY09 Review
Shell logs PKR 1.01 Billion profits for 1HCY09
Shell Pakistan Limited (SHELL) has announced its 1HCY09 result on August 19, 2009. The company posted its NPAT of PKR 1.01 Billion a decline of 71%YoY from PKR 3.45 Billion last year during the same period. The Sales were PKR 82 Billion in 1HCY09 compare to PKR 88.06 Billion in 1HCY08 which again represented a decline by 7%YoY compare to the corresponding year. The EPS were again low by 71% to PKR 14.80 per share compare to the same period last year. The foremost issues who impaired the company’s performance were decline in POL products volume, higher financing cost and lower inventory gains.
Better Picture in 1HCY08
The company had better outlook in 1HCY08 compare to 1HCY09. This was mainly in result of a huge inventory gain due to sharp increase in oil prices in the global market last year, the reason why we have seen a decline in Gross Profit Margin from 10.67% to 6.35% comparing to 1HCY08. The profit before tax also shrank by 82% to PKR 962 Million against the PKR 5,380 Million during the same period last year in return of the same reason.
Apart from the above mentioned reasoning, it should be pertinent to note that on a normalized basis after excluding the impact of inventory gains of 2008, the company’s performance shown improvement in terms of profitability regardless of the economic and security challenges faced by the country. Moreover, the company still has unsettled government receivables of approximately PKR 4 Billion including PDC and Sales Tax refunds which allowed the company to soar its short term financing by 65.5% to PKR 902 Million in 1HCY09 from PKR 545 Million in the corresponding period so that it should complete its business cycle. Additionally, one of the elements which supported earnings was chiefly due to the tax reversal of PKR 51.75 Million for the period under review.
Looking Forward
Since the oil prices are moving up on global basis and the Board of Directors has approved an interim dividend for the year ending December 31, 2009 at the rate of PKR 8 per share so we recommend buying its stock.
Shell Pakistan Limited (SHELL) has announced its 1HCY09 result on August 19, 2009. The company posted its NPAT of PKR 1.01 Billion a decline of 71%YoY from PKR 3.45 Billion last year during the same period. The Sales were PKR 82 Billion in 1HCY09 compare to PKR 88.06 Billion in 1HCY08 which again represented a decline by 7%YoY compare to the corresponding year. The EPS were again low by 71% to PKR 14.80 per share compare to the same period last year. The foremost issues who impaired the company’s performance were decline in POL products volume, higher financing cost and lower inventory gains.
Better Picture in 1HCY08
The company had better outlook in 1HCY08 compare to 1HCY09. This was mainly in result of a huge inventory gain due to sharp increase in oil prices in the global market last year, the reason why we have seen a decline in Gross Profit Margin from 10.67% to 6.35% comparing to 1HCY08. The profit before tax also shrank by 82% to PKR 962 Million against the PKR 5,380 Million during the same period last year in return of the same reason.
Apart from the above mentioned reasoning, it should be pertinent to note that on a normalized basis after excluding the impact of inventory gains of 2008, the company’s performance shown improvement in terms of profitability regardless of the economic and security challenges faced by the country. Moreover, the company still has unsettled government receivables of approximately PKR 4 Billion including PDC and Sales Tax refunds which allowed the company to soar its short term financing by 65.5% to PKR 902 Million in 1HCY09 from PKR 545 Million in the corresponding period so that it should complete its business cycle. Additionally, one of the elements which supported earnings was chiefly due to the tax reversal of PKR 51.75 Million for the period under review.
Looking Forward
Since the oil prices are moving up on global basis and the Board of Directors has approved an interim dividend for the year ending December 31, 2009 at the rate of PKR 8 per share so we recommend buying its stock.
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